Week 1 NFL Picks

Bengals (-2) over RAVENS

The Bengals cannot possibly finish above .500 with Ocho Cinco still creating drama and an undermining owner bringing back Chris Henry.  That’s enough bad karma right there to doom their season.  But in week one, Cincinnati forgets about all their issues and wins on the strength of superior quarterback play (Palmer versus the rookie Flacco).

Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS

The Dolphins have a new coach, a new quarterback and a 31-year-old starting running back (who I nevertheless hope has a big season).  The Jets improved their O-line (Alan Faneca), their D-Line (Kris Jenkins) and you might have heard they also have a new quarterback.  As much as Chad Pennington would love to beat his old team, it’s not gonna happen.  Favre’s magic carries the Jets through at least week 1.

In 2004, Peyton Manning set an NFL record with 49 touchdown passes, yet the Colts failed to win the Superbowl.  In 2006, they figured out how to run the ball and won the big game.  Last year, Tom Brady broke Manning’s TD record and the Patriots routinely beat double-digit spreads.  This year, Tom Brady hasn’t yet played and the Pats didn’t even win a pre-season game.  Plus, I don’t see the Spy-gate anger carrying over through the off-season.  So New England will chill out after remembering that regular season wins don’t really matter.  They’ll still win a lot of games, but won’t be running away with them and going for it on fourth down with 20-point leads.

Young Shanahan and a Denver run-blocking scheme, plus improved QB play will help Houston improve on last year’s 8-8 record.  Whether or not they win tomorrow, they will keep it close.

I’m surprised this line is so low.  I love the way David Garrard takes care of the ball (18 TDs and only 3 INTs last year) and their defense is solid.  Add the bitter memory of losing to Tennessee in last year’s opener and I see a big win tomorrow.

Lions (-3) over FALCONS

Three point favorites against a rookie QB?!!  Tooo eeeeasy…  Not to mention a new head coach and a career backup starting at RB.  Plus, who’s going to cover Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson with DeAngelo Hall in Oakland?  One win down, 9 to go for Jon Kitna and the Lions.

Seahawks (+1) over BILLS

Seattle traditionally starts off slow.  Don’t’ expect big numbers from Matt Hassel beck and the offense until at least week 4.   But do expect solid, if conservative, coaching.  If they could, the Seahawks would win by ½ a point.  They won’t win big, but they’ll win.

SAINTS (-3) over Buccaneers

New Orleans gets back to their 2006 form by beating the 2007 NFC South Champs.  In a pretty evenly matched game, home0field in the Superdome is enough for an ATS win or at least a push.

Superior line-play by the Eagles keys a blow-out.  Steven Jackson gets comfortable with a new contract and struggles with an o-line that, because of so many injuries last year, barely knows each other.

Cleveland keeps it close at home.

Panthers (+9) over CHARGERS

Nine points is too much for Jake Delhomme, Tommy John and a bounce-back Carolina team.  Even without Steve Smith, the Panthers will keep it close. 

Cardinals (-2.5) over FORTY-NINERS

J.T. O’Sullivan wishes he had Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to throw to.

Adrian Peterson beats a defense with a hurting A.J. Hawk and Jared Allen helps the Minnesota defense keep Aaron Rogers in check in his first start.

I refuse to ever bet against Mike Shanahan when he’s facing Al Davis.  I’m pretty sure Mike will still hate Al even after he dies.

Note:  I will escape from the evil grasp of full-time tax-consulting in a little over a week.  I am very much looking forward to having the extra time to focus on football.

The victorious outcome should not, however, encourage the East High coaches to keep calling so many pass plays.  After both East and American Fork started the first quarter with successful, run-dominated drives which led to a 7-7 tie, both teams seemed to treat the rest of the first half as a passing experiment.  (Pssst:  There’s a game going on—see if maybe you can win it…)  In spite of some great catches by Senior Captain John Webb, the East High passing game failed to produce anything but punts and interceptions in the first half.  After a Caveman interception by Mitch Harrison, a Tuai pass to an offensive lineman, and a dropped interception by #8 of American Fork, which would have been an easy touchdown, I was seriously asking:  Where’s the run game?

Not that the Cavemen passing was much better.  (Plus, is there a more appropriate nick-name for a run-oriented team?  I say no.)  American Fork’s only touchdown did come on a pass to Spencer Maglebee, but it was also the result of a blown coverage that left #46 wide open after East failed to get to the Caveman quarterback on an all-out blitz.

As if I myself were in the locker-room at half-time, both teams brilliantly came out pounding the ball.  Six run plays in a row led to a Cavemen field-goal.  East answered with a 15-play drive that included 12 runs.  On one pass, Tuai completed a simple slant.  On another, he missed a wide-open Ryan Shipp.  Even though the drive resulted in no points, I felt changing strategy to a variety of runs and simple pass plays gave the Leopards a good chance of winning the game.

The next Cavemen drive ended after a 2nd-and-8 pass attempt resulted in a sack and a 12-yard loss.  After the last successful, run-dominated drive, why pass?  Two running plays had a much better chance of picking up the first down.  East answered right back by throwing an interception, this one by Tuai’s short-lived replacement. 

With the ball on the East High 18-yard-line and a 3-point lead, American Fork seemed to have the game wrapped up with 6:40 to play in the fourth quarter.  Common sense clearly pointed towards three run plays to run down the clock, if not score a touchdown or field goal.  But what do the Cavemen do?  They abandon the run after losing 3 yards on the first play.  A third-down complete pass brought them to the 16-yard-line, but instead of attempting a field-goal, the Cavemen call a fake, which (surprise, surprise) doesn’t work.

This set the stage for Danny Tuai’s heroics.  Before the game-clinching pass, East’s 10-play drive actually included 3 called runs, 2 QB scrambles and one high-percentage out-route.  The clock was ticking and East had barely crossed mid-field when they called a time-out with 1:42 left in the game.  Two plays later, Matt Price was inexplicably left wide-open and Danny Tuai amazingly put the ball in his hands.  “The encounter was a victory, but I think I’ve shown it as an example of what not to do.”